In a report judging the economic situation in the first quarter of 2014, the National Financial Supervisory Commission says that as it predicted for the consecutive quarters, economic growth will be better thanks to the effects of the integrated demand support solution (by increasing investment with the Government bonds, reducing the interest rates and so on). Therefore, the prospect of reaching the year’s 5.8% growth rate has become brighter.
Export continues to play the motive force role in growth. In Q1 of 2014, export surplus is valued at USD 1 billion, a 44.5% increase year on year and this is the highest figure since 2010, in which export and import turnover has increased by 14.1% and 12.4% respectively. Vietnam’s export has been noted as a breakthrough as compared to other ASEAN countries.
Improvement has been made in enterprises when there is a better change in debt payment, in financial leverage and in efficiency in production and business in later 2013.
The environment of macro economy is stable, the interest rates há reduced while the budget revenue has seen good prospect.
On the other hand, the banking system has seen pretty good change. Investors’ trust at home and abroad has been consolidated and the securities market has seen signs of recovery. Specifically, the Vietnam Securities Market has continuously recorded the new records since 2009 and is classified as being the market with the fastest growth in the world in Q1 of 2014.
However, there are still a lot of difficulties and challenges for the economy, in which the integrated demand has been slowly improved with slow increase of 5.1% of retail sale and services, not so high as compared to that in 2013.
Private investment is yet to be improved, in which investment in development in Q1 of 2014 has reduced by 4.9% year on year. “The economic growth rate is, therefore, still at the low level as compared to the potential of the conomy” – remarks the National Fiancial Supervisory Commission.
On the other hand, the motive force for the growth still depends on the FDI area. Export turnover (excluding crude oil) has increased by 18.9% year on year. Along with the implementation of the solutions of restructuring the economy in order to boost the long-term growth, the Commission says that it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supporting the integrated demand of the economy, opening the goods consumption market for production; supporting peasants with the agricultural products price; reducing the interest rates and continue to support enterprises and producers to get access to bank loans.
On the basis of the whole year’s inflation target, it is necessary to regulate the basic goods and services prices and the exchange rate as well as regulating the integrated demand of the economy through the coordination of the monetary-fiscal policy in a suitable way with the goal of reigning in inflation as stipulated./.
